Planning tool

Students:

• recognise and use the language of probability confidently
• systematically list the outcomes of single-stage events
• assign probabilities to possible outcomes of single-stage events
• predict relative frequencies and represent them as ratios, decimals or percentages.

Some students may:

• misunderstand how random events can be quantified. By carefully designing and carrying out an experiment for a particular event, students can make connections about likelihood and assigning probabilities.
• find the concept of randomness trivial; by designing an experiment, using a variety of ways to record outcomes, and working systematically, connections to probabilities can be made.

Encourage students to read questions carefully as slight nuances in language are important in probability. Students whose first language is a language or dialect other than English may need particular support in this topic.

The Learning from home activities are designed to be used flexibly by teachers, parents and carers, as well as the students themselves. They can be used in a number of ways including to consolidate and extend learning done at school or for home schooling.

Learning intention

• We are learning the language of probability (likely, unlikely, certain, impossible, possible, chance).
• We are learning to demonstrate and list the possible outcomes of an event.
• We are learning to describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes.

Why are we learning about this?

In life, it is important to know how to quantify, explore and explain likelihood and coincidence of events happening in our lives, and to reason about uncertainty. This helps us make decisions.

What to do

Game 1

The aim of this game is to distinguish between the events that have different likelihoods and explain numerically why one event is more likely than another.

1. Play the game with a partner. Each player has a bag from which they take turns to randomly select a marble and then replace it.
2. Each time a player selects a red marble they score a point.
3. The first player to score 5 points wins the game.
4. Discuss what the probability is of picking out a red marble?

Game 2

For each scenario, roll a dice 30 times and record the resulting number of points.

A point is scored every time you roll one of the following:

• an even number
• a 6
• a number < 6
• a number > 2
• a square number.

In each case, decide whether you were luckier or less lucky than expected. Explain your reasoning by recording your results in a table like the one below. Compare your results with the expected number of occurrences.

Success criteria

• I can use the language of probability when explaining the experiment/event.
• I can list systematically the outcomes of one-step and two-step experiments.
• I can calculate the probability of outcomes.